teisipäev, oktoober 09, 2007

Euroopa Keskpanga poliitika kui põhjus, miks Eesti eurole minek viibib (TÄIEND.)

The reason for this massive surge in inflation is to some extent a case of irresponsible lending practices from particularly some subsidiaries of large Swedish banks. But a perhaps even more important reason is the fact that the Baltic states peg their currencies to the euro.

That means that they are forced to have the same interest rates as the ECB sets. And the ECB of course sets interest rates artificially low in a pathetic attempt to revive the lackluster French and Italian economies, which are inhibited by statist domestic policies, as well as to limit the appreciation against the extremely weak U.S. dollar.

This has had a disproportionate effect on booming economies such as the Baltic countries. Ironically, it is the high inflation created by the ECB policy they have to follow that is responsible for their exclusion from the euro area.
Stefan Karlsson Eesti ja Läti inflatsioonist.

Kui hakatakse kunstlikult looma majandusruumi, milles on vägagi erinevas arengujärgus riigid, siis on probleemid vältimatud. Lisame siia veel erinevused majanduspoliitilistes arusaamades ning oleme jõudnud olukorda, kus Eesti majanduspoliitika kõige suuremaks mõjutajaks on teiste - märksa suuremate - riikide soov enda majandust kunstlikult elavdada tõelistele probleemidele näkku vaatamata.

Täiendavaid mõtteid ja analüüsi Baltic Economy Watch blogist:
Estonia is facing, at one and the same time, a massive inflow of external funds, and a significant reduction in its potential labour supply after years and years of below replacement fertility. Put another way, demand side factors are increasing rapidly, while supply side capacity not only is unable to keep pace, it is actually shrinking (if we think about the number of people of working age).

So there are two problems to correct here, and they are both large and important. Essentially Estonia needs:

a) more labour supply, both skilled and unskilled
b) a lower rate of inflow of structurally distorting funds, whether these be bank credit, remittances, or even (possibly, this needs investigating further) EU funding for projects which Estonia cannot reasonably expect to carry through in the time horizon outlined, given the capacity constraints.
c) more Foreign Direct Investment to create value creating jobs, especially in manufacturing and services areas with export potential
d) increased spending on education and training projects to upgrade the human capital of the existing population
(via Blogus)

Sildid: ,

4 Comments:

Blogger *uri said...

Nagu kunagi ka oma blogis kirjutasin peaks neutraalse majanduspoliitika puhul olema intressimäär võrdne nominaalse SKP kasvuga. Sellest lähtuvalt on üsna selge, et sellised madalad intressimäärad pumpavad majandusse üha rohkem ja rohkem õhku sisse. Aga vaevalt, et selles ECB poliitika süüdi on. "Süüdi" oleme ikka meie, et sellise currency peg'i tegime.

10. oktoober 2007 18:11  
Blogger Jüri Saar said...

Ma küsiks nii, kas Euroopa Liiduga liitumisel ei teinud me automaatselt otsust ka euroga liituda?

Ma olen nõus, et "süüd" kui taolist pole eriti kellelgi peale meie endi, sest lõppude lõpuks peab ECB lähtuma ikkagi sellest, mis toimub riikides, kus elab kümneid miljoneid inimesi.

Eesti ja eestlased jäävad suuremates institutsioonides lihtsalt masinavärgi hammasrataste vahele ja samas kui kodukootud lahenduste rakendamine on problemaatiline.

11. oktoober 2007 12:43  
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