Hiina ühe-lapse poliitika tagajärgedest

Mõni aeg tagasi tsiteeris Harvardis majandusteadlane Greg Mankiw Philip Swagelit pärast viimase värsket külastust Hiinasse:

Being there gave me an interesting window on demographics and the problem of the aging society. You see it just walking on the street: there are just hardly any children around. It's eerie. The 1-child policy has been in place for 3 decades, and as a result China is heading into a snap demographic transition; they've created their own aging society but without putting into place social welfare systems or pensions. They actually went the other way by allowing state enterprises to jettison their former pensions (the so-called "iron rice bowl"). And their problems don't end there, since the demographic change means as well that they will soon be a society with near-vertical family trees -- no brothers or sisters means in a few generations there will be no more cousins either. So there's no formal social safety net and they are putting an end to the informal safety net of the extended family. No wonder they save so much -- it's all precautionary. We heard stories about the fee-for-service health system -- hospitals won't take out a new bag of plasma for a transfusion until the cash is handed over. And who knows what all of this will do to the social fabric in China, as the family structure of 1,000+ years comes to end.

Hiinlaste hirm on ameeriklaste odava raha jätkuvaks allikaks. Kõik need säästud otsivad stabiilsust, võimalust kasvada või siis vähemalt mitte kahaneda. Ja seda mitte järgmise 10 või 20 aasta perspektiivis vaid 40 ja 50 aasta perspektiivis. USA on jätkuvalt kõige kindlam kohta investeeringuteks ja jääb selleks veel lähemas tulevikus.

Euroopa on alternatiiv, kuid jätkuv killustatus, nõrk majanduskasv ja suhtumine kapitalismi, mis on negatiivsem hiinlaste omast (eriti Prantsusmaal), ei kutsu just eriti kedagi siia suuremaid summasid investeerima või Eurotsooni potentsiaalse ebastabiilsusega loteriid mängima.

Kõige huvitavam on aga siiski tõsiasi, et tulevikus on hiinlaste jaoks "onu" ja "tädi" ajaloolised sõnad, mida saab kasutada rääkides pigem elust teistes riikides.